After a period of adjustment, the dairy market is showing positive signals of stabilization and recovery as the autumn and winter consumption peak season approaches.
Stabilizing and Rising Prices
Recent data shows signs of stabilization in milk&KeyWordID=c1da0410712345628f5cc62ae6c4ac59&PublisherID=b3fac7dd-9156-424c-9843-193631ebb67b' target='_blank'>raw milk prices. In September 2025, the purchase price of raw milk in major dairy production provinces reached 3.03 yuan per kilogram, a slight increase of 0.3% month-on-month, ending the previous downward trend. With the Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day holiday consumption peak, and the implementation of new sterilized milk national standards, raw milk demand has increased, and prices are expected to recover from their lows.
Significant Market Divergence
The polarization trend in the dairy market is intensifying. Leading enterprises maintain growth through strong distribution channels and brand advantages, while regional dairy companies continue to face pressure. In the first half of the year, the total revenue of 28 listed dairy companies decreased by 1.05% year-on-year, and total net profit decreased by 14.83%. This divergence is evident not only among enterprises but also across various product categories, presenting a development situation of "polar opposites".
Continued Import Growth
Despite the continuous oversupply of domestic raw milk, dairy imports have grown against the trend. From January to August 2025, China's dairy import volume reached 1.8172 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%; import value reached 8.552 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%. Imports of deep-processed products such as whey powder, cream, and cheese showed significant growth, reflecting that domestic related industries still cannot meet market demand.
Emergence of New Consumption Scenarios
Dairy consumption is expanding from traditional drinking to diversified scenarios. Over the past five years, domestic cheese consumption has grown by 120%. In the new tea beverage sector, young consumption scenarios like milk tea and coffee have huge potential. Meanwhile, the silver economy market also shows considerable potential, with functional dairy products for the elderly currently accounting for only 3.2% of the entire dairy market, which is severely mismatched with the huge demand from China's nearly 300 million elderly population.
Gaps in Deep Processing
Compared with globally advanced dairy countries, China has obvious shortcomings in deep processing. European and American countries have converted over 40% of raw milk into deep-processed products like cheese and milk protein powder, while China's dairy deep processing rate is less than 10%. Currently, China's B-end dairy market scale is close to 100 billion yuan, but 70% to 80% of the market share relies on imports, indicating an urgent need for industrial upgrading.
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